بالفيديو تهديد صيني خطير لـ”قناة السويس”

Zug-Von-China-London

 

تواجه قناة السويس تحديات عديدة ومنافسة دولية شرسة من طرق ملاحية، والحكومة المصرية باتت في مأزق بسبب المسارات البديلة والتي كان آخرها وأخطرها قطار الصين.

وعلى الرغم من افتتاح الرئيس عبد الفتاح السيسى لـ «قناة السويس الجديدة» في أغسطس من العام الماضي، والتي هي في واقع الأمر توسعة وتفريعة جديدة لقناة السويس، بتكلفة بلغت حوالي 8 مليار دولار؛ على أمل أن تزيد حركة السفن في القناة في الاتجاهين،الا ان هذا الإنفاق والذي كان وسيكون له تداعيات اقتصادية وسياسية على مصر، يلاحظ أن إيرادات قناة السويس قد انخفضت على إثر هذه القناة الجديدة على عكس التوقعات والتصريحات التي تنبأت بتسديد تكلفة القناة الحديدة في فترة وجيزة للغاية عن طريق فائض الأرباح الذي ستضخه،وفقا لـ”تقارير عالمية”.

وكان أبرز التحديات لقناة السويس، وصول أول قطارصينى تجاري لنقل البضائع من الصين إلى محطته الأخيرة، في العاصمة البريطانية لندن، أمس الأربعاء. وقال «فانغ شو دونغ»، نائب المدير العام لشركة «تيانمينغ» (Tianmeng) للاستثمار الصناعي، «إن خط القطار السريع الجديد بين (ييوو) و(لندن) يوفر الوقت مقارنة بنقل البضائع البحري، الذي يستغرق 30 يوماً، إضافةً إلى كلفته القليلة مقارنة بالنقل الجوي»، بحسب ما ذكرت قناة itv البريطانية.

واستغرقت رحلة القطار 18 يوماً، قطع خلالها مسافة تزيد عن 12 ألف كيلومتر، بعد مغادرته يوم رأس السنة الجديدة محطة السكك الحديدية الغربية في «ييوو» بمقاطعة «تشيجيانغ» شرقي الصين، والمعروفة بإنتاج السلع.

ومر القطار عبر نفق بحر المانش، مروا بـ 8 دول، حاملاً 68 حاوية بضائع رئيسية، من بينها مستلزمات منزلية وملابس وأقمشة وحقائب. وتعد لندن المدينة الـ 15 في أوروبا التي يتم إضافتها لخدمات قطارات الشحن بين الصين وأوروبا، بحسب «الأناضول».

وذكرت شركة السكك الحديدية الصينية، أن هذه الخدمة ستحسن العلاقات التجارية بين الصين وبريطانيا، وتعزز التواصل مع غرب أوروبا، بينما ستخدم بشكل أفضل مبادرة «الحزام والطريق» الصينية، والتي تتكون من شبكة بنية أساسية وتجارة تربط آسيا مع أوروبا وأفريقيا على طول الطرق التجارية القديمة.

وفي وقت سابق، قالت رئيسة الوزراء البريطانية «تيريزا ماي» إن العلاقة مع الصين تتيح فرصة ذهبية لجلب استثمارات صينية بمليارات الدولارات، في الوقت الذي تستعد فيه بريطانيا للخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي.

والقطار الجديد ينطلق من الصين ويمر عبر كازاخستان وروسيا وبيلاروسيا وبولندا وألمانيا وبلجيكا وفرنسا قبل وصوله إلى محطته النهائية لندن حاملا البضائع الصينية التي تحتاج لها أوروبا.

يعود ذلك إلى المنافسة والتهديد الكبيرين الذين تواجههما قناة السويس نظرًا لقيام بعض الدول بمشاريع منافسة بل وبديلة للقناة، مثل خط السكة الحديد الذي أطلقته الصين وينتهي في إسبانيا، وتهديدها مؤخرًا بتحويل حركة سفنها عبر القطب الشمالي إن لم تخفض مصر رسوم المرور في قناة السويس إلى النصف، بالإضافة إلى عدد من المشاريع الأخرى التي تهدد مستقبل قناة السويس كطريق التجارة الأهم في العالم. وقد برزت مؤخرًا مشاريع لطرق جديدة وإعادة إحياء لطرق قديمة، سواء بحرية أو برية؛ الأمر الذي شكل منافسة وتهديدًا للقناة القديمة التي حفرها المصريون وبذلوا في سبيلها أرواحهم. ويمكن عرض أبرز هذه المشاريع كالتالي:

1ـ الممر الشمالي الشرقي كشف تقرير لصحيفة الصين ديلي فى ابريل الماضي أن الحكومة الصينية ستحث شركات الملاحة على استخدام «الممر الشمالي الشرقي» المار عبر المحيط المتجمد الشمالي، الذي فتح بفضل الاحتباس الحراري الذي ذوب الجليد في القطب الشمالي؛ لتقليل الزمن وتفاديًا لتكاليف المرور عبر قناة السويس وقناة بنما.

وإذا ما أرادت القناتان الاحتفاظ بجاذبية المرور عبرهما، فيجب على قناة بنما تقليل الرسوم بنسبة 30% تقريبًا، وقناة السويس بنسبة 50% تقريبًا.

إذ ستقل الرحلة من شنغهاي بالصين إلى هامبورغ بألمانيا عبر الممر الشمالي الجديد هذا بحوالي 2800 ميل بحري عن الطريق المار عبر قناة السويس موفرة بذلك الوقت والوقود.

وارتفع عدد السفن التي استخدمت هذا الطريق من نحو 5 سفن عام 2009 إلى 71 سفينة عام 2013.

ورغم أن ذلك لا يقارن بحوالي 17 ألف سفينة شحن تعبر قناة السويس سنويًّا، فإن تضاعف السفن التي تستخدم هذا الممر يعكس الاهتمام الدولي به.

ونجد أن الصين الوحيدة التي هددت باستخدام هذا الطريق؛ وذلك للضغط من أجل تخفيض رسوم العبور، حيث تبلغ حصة بكين من إجمالي الحاويات المحملة العابرة لقناة السويس حوالي 23%.

وبلغ حجم تجارة الصين من البضائع العامة العابرة لقناة السويس حوالي 10.7% من إجمالي البضائع العامة العابرة للقناة، وبلغ عدد سفن الحاويات التابعة لشركة الحاويات الصينية 452 سفينة.

فيما بلغت أعداد الناقلات التي تحمل البترول الخام أو منتجاته والغاز المسال أو الكيماويات 118 سفينة.

لكن رغم هذه التهديدات تعتزم مصر قريبًا زيادة رسوم العبور معتمدة في ذلك على صعوبة العبور في الممر الجديد، خاصة في فصل الشتاء، وأن قناة السويس ما زالت تتمتع بأهميتها الإستراتيجية إضافة لمساهمة مشروع القناة الجديدة في تقليل ساعات الانتظار واختصار ساعات الرحلة عما كان عليه الوضع من قبل.

  1. طريق الحرير الجديد افتتحت بكين، يوم 18\11\2014، أطول خط سكك حديد عابر للقارات بالعالم والذي أسمته «طريق الحرير الجديد». يمتد هذا الطريق من مدن الساحل الشرقي للصين حتى العاصمة الإسبانية «مدريد»، وتبلغ هذه المسافة 13 ألف كم تقريبًا، في رحلة ستستغرق 17 يومًا، بدلًا من 6 أسابيع بالبحر.

والصين لا تعتبر هذا الطريق مجرد سكك حديد تصلها بأوروبا بل مشروع استثماري عملاق، حيث أوضحت بكين أن إجمالي الاستثمارات الصينية في 64 دولة ومنطقة تقع على طول طريق الحرير والحزام الاقتصادي المحيط به بلغ 161.2 مليار دولار حتى نهاية مايو 2015، بالإضافة إلى تأسيس بنك آسيوي للبنية التحتية بمشاركة أكثر من 50 دولة ليخدم المشاريع التي ستقام على هامش طريق الحرير هذا.

قد يكون لهذا الطريق إن فُعِّل بشكل كامل تأثيرات سلبية حقيقية على قناة السويس متعلقة بتمرير صادرات الصين إلى أوروبا مباشرة بعيدًا عن قناة السويس.

لكن هناك من يرى أن طريق الحرير هذا قد يخدم مصر؛ لأن تجارة الصين التي تخرج إلى الدول العربية والأفريقية ستمر عن طريق قناة السويس مرة أخرى.

  1. قناة بنما وقناة نيكاراغوا عملت بنما على توسعة القناة البحرية الخاصة بها والتي تربط بين المحيطين الأطلسي والهادي بطول 80 كم والتي سيتم افتتاحها في 26\6\2016، إذ نفذ أكثر من 97٪ من عملية تعميق مجرى القناة وبهذا ستستقبل سفن يصل غاطسها إلى نحو 58 قدمًا بدلاً من نحو 40 قدمًا.

لكن تأثير ذلك سينصب على التجارة التي تصل إلى موانئ الساحل الغربي للولايات المتحدة، ولن يكون لها تأثيرات كبيرة على قناة السويس التي تتركز أهميتها في توفير طريق مختصر لحاملات النفط من الخليج العربي إلى أوروبا، وكذلك في الربط بين جنوب شرق آسيا وأوروبا. في حين تتميز قناة بنما بملاءمتها الجغرافية في تدفق التجارة بين اليابان وأستراليا ودول أمريكا الجنوبية والساحل الشرقي لأمريكا.

ولكن هذا التأثير سيظل متوقفًا على عدة عوامل أرجعها الخبراء لمعدل الاقتصاد العالمي والتجارة العالمية، وتكلفة الخدمات ورسوم العبور. في مقابل قناة بنما التي تسيطر عليها الولايات المتحدة عملت الصين على حفر قناة جديدة بين المحيطين الهادي والأطلسي عبر أراضي نيكاراغوا. في مقابل قناة بنما التي تهيمن عليها الولايات المتحدة، بدأت شركة صينية في ديسمبر 2014 مشروع حفر «قناة نيكاراغوا» والتي تربط هي الأخرى المحيط الأطلسي بالهادي، لمنافسة قناة بنما.

وستمتد قناة نيكاراغوا إلى 278 كلم طولاً وبعرض يتراوح بين 230- 520 م وعمق 27.6 م، بتكلفة تقدر بـ 50 مليار دولار.

ومن المتوقع أن ينتهي العمل فيها خلال خمس سنوات، وأن تستطيع حمل ما يصل إلى 25 ألف حاوية، ويعتبر هذا المشروع ذا أهمية إستراتيجية لأن التمويل والتنفيذ سيكون صينيًّا وبدعم روسيا وبعض دول أمريكا اللاتينية؛ الأمر الذي سيجعل بكين تتحكم في معبر مائي دولي على مشارف الولايات المتحدة.

لكن يرى «خبراء مصريون» عدم وجود تأثيرات سلبية لقناة نيكارغوا على قناة السويس، إذ تخدم مناطق بعيدة عن تلك التي تخدمها قناة السويس.

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